no third solution

Blogging about liberty, anarchy, economics and politics

Life Expectancy & Junk Science

September 12th, 2007

Another survey in bad statistical analysis is that of the life expectancy gap, the myth being that people in the U.S. simply don’t live as long as those in other parts of the world.

Now, I’m not sure what the spread is between the U.S. and the “forty countries” behind which it lags in this statistic, but allow me to make a few quick points. We can be certain that some of these countries either compile less accurate statistics than the U.S., or that they under-report infant deaths or some other aspect that may negatively impact our comparisons. Without controlling for these factors – the comparison is truly of an apples-to-cinderblocks variety.

For example, the inclusion of an additional single infant death (per 1,000 of population) is enough to lower the average by a tenth of a year, and when we are dealing with a large sample, an increase or decrease of 1/10 of 1 percent is statistically significant to the 90% C.I. So, if you start including a few more infant deaths per 1,000 of population, a gap of half a year or more may no longer be significant.

What this all means, is that we can’t really draw any meaningful conclusions from such data, where statistics are irregularly or inaccurately gathered and compiled, and where definitions change from nation to nation – which entirely skirts the issue that (at least for now) the U.S. is still a hell of a lot better place to live than some of those countries (e.g., Cuba) which outrank us on the life-expectancy charts.

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no third solution

Blogging about liberty, anarchy, economics and politics