It will be interesting to see what sort of retail numbers come out for this bellwether weekend, and further, whether they can be sustained. Against the current economic backdrop, poorer than expected holiday sales would be really bad news.  Currently, Bloomberg is reporting that holiday spending appears to be up slightly (it would be interesting to find out what proportion of the holiday spend is being put on consumer credit cards).

I wouldn’t know. I stayed very clear of all shopping venues yesterday, bringing my YTD holiday spending total to $0.  And I plan on cashing in airline miles for about $500 worth of Macy’s gift cards.  This means that if you’re on my Christmas list, you’re either getting something from Macy’s, or you’re getting a gift card to Macy’s.

Today on my way home from the annual reunion football game with my high school friends, I drove past the mall. (For those keeping score at home, my team lost although I did score three touchdowns.)  If there is a recession going on, it’s apparently not happening anywhere near the Somerset Collection mall. The overflow parking lot—previously the expansive parking lot for K-Mart’s former headquarters in Troy, Michigan—was completely full and the mall was running a shuttle to and from. The parking lot at the nearby Target store was also full, and traffic seemed slightly heavier than I would’ve expected on a holiday weekend.

Since one-in-five Michigan residents are out of work, I’m curious to know what’s financing all of this spending.  Everywhere I look, people don’t have money. They don’t have jobs. They’re losing their houses to foreclosure. They’re defaulting on credit cards, or behind on payments, etc.

My unsubstantiated guess, is that people are just maxing out their credit cards to make holiday purchases this year.

And that’s not good news.