no third solution

Blogging about liberty, anarchy, economics and politics

Going for Two

December 23rd, 2008

I’ve often thought about the football situation FSK describes in NFL Fnords. A football team scores a touchdown with no time remaining, an extra point will tie the game and send it to overtime, but a successful two-point conversion will win it. I always say “Go for the two point conversion!”

There is rarely a better opportunity to win a football game than from the 2-yard line. Going for two points gives you an immediate opportunity to win the game, your chances are in the neighborhood of 40%.

If you go for the tie, you’ve only got about a 95% chance of making the kick, and a 50% chance of receiving the kickoff. You only have a 45% chance that you’ll even have the first opportunity to score in overtime, there is a 5% chance that you’ll lose the game because you missed the kick, and a 50% chance that the other team will get the ball first in OT. (Note: winning in OT does not appear to be strongly correlated with the result of the OT coin flip, I think it’s about 50/50)

That notwithstanding, your odds of winning in OT are dependent upon either:

  1. putting together a drive long enough to kick a field goal, where your kicker has an 80% chance of success.
  2. putting together a drive long enough to score a touchdown.
  3. preventing the other team from doing either (1) or (2) and then doing (1) or (2).

Both of the first two scenarios depend on a series of successful plays, no turnovers, no penalties, etc. The game-winning OT touchdown drive, assuming that your RB doesn’t break one for 20+ yards, will probably come down to a play from scrimmage at the 2-yard line, in which case you’re right back where you started. This scenario is objectively less likely a priori to win the game than just going for the two-point conversion in the first place. The field-goal scenario may be your best chance, but remember that you’ve got only a 50% chance to receive the kick in OT. If you lose the coin-toss, you’ve got to stop the other team from doing either (1) or (2) and then successfully score a touchdown or a field goal of your own.

A Question on the Price Elasticity of Lift Tickets

December 6th, 2008

The local ski “resorts” raised their lift prices by $2 or $3 this year. I suppose that’s to be expected, but it’s still a pain in the ass. Fortunately, we’ve had a little bit of snow, I was able to hit the slopes the night before Thanksgiving. I don’t ever remember (in 18 years of skiing/boarding) being able to ride before Thanksgiving. The local hills opened the week before, the bigger resorts up north opened Thanksgiving Day or the day after.

Anyways, I also made it out on the day after Thanksgiving for the evening session at one of the local dirt-hills. The morning pass is good from 10am to 5pm, and the evening pass from 3pm to 10pm, so there is some overlap. As I was leaving the ticket window, I heard some kids trying to extend their morning pass, they were willing to pay extra to stay a few more hours.

A morning pass is $30. An evening pass is $30. An all-day pass is $37, seems like you should be able to upgrade your pass for $7 and a processing fee of some sort, right?

Wrong! You are not able to convert a morning pass to an all-day pass.

This is the policy everywhere I’ve ever shredded, “upgrades” are not available. The only way to extend your lift ticket is by purchasing another, full-price lift ticket. So, you have to pay an additional $30 for something that you could’ve bought (with some foresight) for $7. Of course, almost nobody is willing to do this, and these kids were no exception to the rule.

Which makes me wonder why the policy is as it is. For this policy to be profitable, you’d have to sell one of these full-price tickets to 20% of the people who would’ve bought a regular-priced extension. I sincerely doubt that they sell full-price tickets to even 1% of the people who’d be willing to pay an additional $7.

Effectively, the resorts have set the price of extending one’s lift ticket so high as to completely eliminate any demand for ticket upgrades. “If you’re not willing to give us an additional $30, we don’t want any of your money” is a stupid way to do business when the marginal cost of an additional skier is essentially $0, and especially since many of the local hills are struggling financially over the past few winters.

If they’re not willing to “upgrade” their pass for $7, why not offer an extension for, say, $10 or $15?

Why Can’t We Secede?

November 20th, 2008

I read about a Zogby Poll a few months ago, that suggests something like one-fifth of Americans support the idea of secession (at least at the state level), unfortunately,

The more education a respondent had, the less likely they were to support secession – as 38% of those with less than a high school diploma would support it, compared to just 10% of those with a college degree.

I think the correlation here is: The more pro-State brainwashing an individual has received, the less likely he is to believe in anti-State ideas, like secession, or freedom.

In What Libertarianism Isn’t (Part 2), John from Blagnet inquires:

Why is it a violation of the Statist moral code to non-violently abstain from participating in State functions?

That’s a damn good question, Mike, and it’s one that few people have ever thought about answering. The key point here is that I’m always talking about non-violent abstention, and I will not recognize or respond to any straw-man arguments suggesting otherwise.

Anyways, imagine a State that decided to secede from the Union. In the context of the current government, of course it would not tolerable, the Constitution does not address the topic, instead permitting new States to be formed within the jurisdiction of existing states only upon Congressional approval according to Ariticle 4, Section 3.

This conveniently subjects State sovereignty to the very entity with which it may wish to sever all ties. But Article 4, Section 3 doesn’t really address secession. It only says that you can’t start gerrymandering the existing State to suit your desires, nor can you establish your own State to that effect. It does not address the possibility that some people might want no State at all, and these people are forbidden from pursuing that goal.

It is clear, then, that the people whose opinions matter most, don’t count, that the venerable “Consent of the Governed” is taken as an immutable absolute, that dissent or repudiation in practice is forbidden. If man is not free to withdraw his Consent, then it can never be said that he truly offered it, in the first place.

What should happen to those who wish to secede?

Let’s take our hypothetical one step further: imagine an individual who wanted to secede? Accepting the government’s claim to legitimacy (resting upon the foundation of the now defunct “consent of the governed”), is it acceptable to violently prevent this individual from exercising this choice? To take up arms against him? To force his acquiescence or his death?

By what right do men claim the moral authority to kill someone simply because of a disagreement? Can it be tolerable, under any circumstances, for the government (a government indisputably lacking consent) to kill these people, whose sole crime is an attempt to exercise their free choice to not belong? I submit that it cannot.

The good thing is that most people aren’t morally bankrupt enough to kill over a disagreement, so with that said, there is some modicum of hope. The bad thing, however, is that most people are just morally bankrupt enough to delegate that crime to someone else, someone who is willing to get his hands dirty.

How embarrassingly nonsensical is it, for a group of men to say, “We want you to be a part of our group, our enlightened ‘Society’ so badly that we’re willing to kill you if you reject our offer?”

It is worse than nonsensical. If you’re willing to kill someone, in order to get his cooperation, you’re clearly not interested in his cooperation. Your interested in enslaving him. It is a damnably brutish and subhuman appeal to violent force; it is ultimately the foundation upon which any appeal to government rests.

no third solution

Blogging about liberty, anarchy, economics and politics