no third solution

Blogging about liberty, anarchy, economics and politics

Economic Optimism: Reading Between The Lines

October 20th, 2009

In the mainstream media, we are peppered with optimistic economic forecasts and reports of any positive changes in leading indicators.  For example suggestions that the U.S. economy is on pace to grow at an annualized rate of 2% or 3% during Q4-2009. This is reported as an “annualized” rate in order to hide the massive contractions[1] of Q1 (-8.6%) and Q2 (-2.3%).

Curiously though, even as the Federal Reserve continues to sustain the Zombieconomy by massive injections of liquidity and/or monetization, The Chairman insists that “The United States must increase its national savings rate.”[2]

I say “curiously” because, if this insistence is meant for the American people at large (i.e., he is urging Americans in the individual capacities to save money and/or pay down outstanding debt), this is at odds with the FOMC’s decision to keep nominal interest rates at or near zero per cent.  All else equal, higher interest rates encourage savings, and lower interest rates encourage debt. When the nominal interest rates are nil, and real inflation is rampant, there is little incentive to save money (other than the precautionary motive, a classic “leakage”), and it is savings in the form of investments that spur real economic growth.

As a matter of policy, if Bernanke wants to reduce or slow the growth of the national debt, he simply needs to put the brakes on the processes which enable the Treasury to sell (i.e., increase) the national debt. The Fed would need to stop buying debt, sovereign or otherwise, and the adjustment and restructuring would probably be quite painful, but hopefully short-lived.

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

But actions speak louder than words ever do, and since the beginning of the year, the Fed has increased its holding of mortgage-backed securities 100-fold [3]—becoming literally the only player in the market. Reining in the national debt will prove exceedingly difficult as long as the FOMC attempts to maintain a Fed Funds rate target of approximately zero (0-25bp) “for an extended period” in order to “boost a week recovery that has yet to create jobs.”[2]

Not only has the “recovery” failed to produce jobs, the unemployment rate has practically doubled in the last year. Consumer prices show no threat of inflation [4] because jobs are being destroyed which means people are cutting back.  Meanwhile, those of us still punching the clock every morning are trying to pay down existing debts.  Taken as a whole, there is less present demand for consumption which keeps prices from rising in the short-run.

Unfortunately the only way the Fed can maintain interest rates at historic lows is to continually increase the money supply, which is inflation by the classical definition of the word. Whenever all that new money makes its way off of the banks’ balance sheets and into the rest of the economy in the form of credit, the inevitable consequence will be rising prices, or “inflation” in newspeak.

Notes:

  1. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: SECOND QUARTER 2009 (THIRD ESTIMATE) (BEA) The numbers for Q3 are not available until October 29
  2. Bernanke Says U.S., Asia Should Reduce Distortions (Bloomberg)
  3. A Look Inside Fed’s Balance Sheet — 10/07/09 Update (WSJ)
  4. Fed on Hold as U.S. Consumer Prices Show No Threat of Inflation (Bloomberg)

A Series of Spectacular Failures

September 1st, 2009

For the record:

  1. Social Security was established in 1935 – they’ve had 74 years to get it right; it is broke.
  2. Fannie Mae was established in 1938 – they’ve had 71 years to get it right; it is broke. Freddie Mac was established in 1970 – they’ve had 39 years to get it right; it is broke. Together Fannie and Freddie have now led the entire world into the worst economic collapse in 80 years.
  3. The War on Poverty was started in 1964 – they’ve had 45 years to get it right; $1 trillion of our hard earned money is confiscated each year and transferred to “the poor”; it hasn’t worked.
  4. Medicare and Medicaid were established in 1965 – they’ve had 44 years to get it right; they are both broke; and now our government dares to mention them as models for all US health care.
  5. AMTRAK was established in 1970 – they’ve had 39 years to get it right; last year they bailed it out as it continues to run at a loss!
  6. This year, a trillion dollars was committed in the massive political payoff called the Stimulus Bill of 2009; it shows NO sign of working; it’s been used to increase the size of governments across America, and raise government salaries while the rest of us suffer from economic hardships. It has yet to create a single new private sector job. Our national debt projections (approaching $10 trillion) have increased 400% in the last six months.
  7. “Cash for Clunkers” was established in 2009 and went broke in 2009 – after 80% of the cars purchased turned out to be produced by foreign companies, and dealers nationwide are buried under bureaucratic paperwork demanded by a government that is not yet paying them what was promised.

So with a perfect 100% failure rate and a record that proves that each and every “service” shoved down our throats by an over-reaching government turns into disaster, how could any informed American trust our government to run or even set policies for America’s health care system – – 17% of our economy?

Maybe each of us has a personal responsibility to let others in on this brilliant record…

via GSC

Hang the Zombieconomy by its Own Rope

September 1st, 2009

Lenin once said that capitalism would ultimately undo itself, because the entrepreneurs would gladly sell the rope with which they would later be hanged; they’d be too busy counting the profits to see the noose tightening around their necks.  Well, somebody is choking right now, but it’s not the “capitalists”.

Instead, like a torture victim, the little guy is being pressed to see just how much he can tolerate, how close they can bring him to the brink of asphyxia… Aside from the obvious swindle, the banks are using trillions of blackmailed dollars, stolen from the people, to strengthen the stranglehold.

Several companies (e.g., Goldman Sachs and American Express) became “bank holding companies” only after the sh*t hit the proverbial fan, for the sole purpose of capitalizing on TARP funds, which they’re now using successfully to buy up the “not too big to fail” banks (the ones that actually failed, or were on the verge of failure) in order to become “too big to fail,” ensuring a limitless source of future bailout funds. And they are now using those stolen funds to earn risk-free profit.

Quoth Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com, “The oligopoly has tightened.” The Washington Post emphasizes:

Regulators pushed failing mortgage lenders and Wall Street firms into the arms of even bigger banks and handed out billions of dollars to ensure that the deals would go through

In several metropolitan regions, [J.P. Morgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo] were permitted to take market share beyond what the Department of Justice’s antitrust guidelines typically allow,

Right now the biggest banks in the world are sitting on the biggest stockpiles of “excess” money ever, and the government is paying interest on these reserves.  And why would bankers lend the money to people who might need it, or might be able to put it to good use, (especially in such turbulent times!) when they can instead earn risk-free profit?  Banks do not need to compete for business when the government guarantees their profits and subsidizes their losses.

That risk-free profit is someone else’s loss.  And that “someone else” is you.

This is not an accident, not misfortune, not due to “animal spirits” or any other academic gobbledygook. Economic depressions are built into the system, by design:

[T]he booms and busts of State-capitalism are coordinated. …[T]hey are coordinated in the sense that, failure to coordinate them results in the complete dissolution of State capitalism’s power structure. Business Cycles then, are not so much engineered by policy makers, as they are tolerated as a necessary evil.

— Engineering a Depression: Monetary Policy 101

Because the zombieconomy feeds on the flesh of the living, at some point the torturer has to relax his grip, has to let go.

So they give us—the victims—a brief reprieve, allowing us to catch our collective breaths just long enough to beg for mercy. At which point they will offer to advance us our own labor and our own credit and our own belongings that were stripped from us in our previous attempts to satisfy their new demands (plus interest). Failing to learn from our mistakes and the mistakes of our forefathers, many will likely accept the terms of whatever new bondage they can devise.  History is doomed to repeat.

How much more suffering at their hands will it take to learn the lesson? We do not need them. But like any parasite, they need us.

I used to doubt whether the “capitalists” were stupid enough to sell the rope, but I confess now that I grow less doubtful each day.  Whether the rest of us are wise enough to tie the hangman’s knot, is another story.

We can control our fates if only we stand and take back what’s ours.

no third solution

Blogging about liberty, anarchy, economics and politics