no third solution

Blogging about liberty, anarchy, economics and politics

Usury: Three Questions

October 13th, 2009

Lee McFarlin with a fish caught by noodlingJones and Smith are on an island. Each of them is capable of catching about 1 fish per day, which is nice because they need approximately 1 fish per day in order to survive. Over time, Smith has accumulated a small excess reserve of fish, maybe a few days worth. In any event, one day Jones has an idea: he believes he can create a tool which would permit him to catch more fish than he can by the ancient practice of noodling.

The problem for Jones is that, since he requires daily fish to survive, he can’t forgo his current production in order to invest his time otherwise in the development of this tool. Jones mentions the idea to Smith, lays out his plans and estimations and asks to borrow two fish in order that he may bring his invention to fruition.

Smith agrees to advance Jones the two fish he requires, but on condition that he repay him two plus one fish (despite the fact that smith does not maintain any position of “authority” over Jones on the island, according to some, Smith is guilty of usury); the extra fish being pledged in good faith because both men know that Jones’ invention may not work. In effect, he says “I will give you two fish, and you will repay me with three fish because there is a non-zero probability that you will be completely unable to repay me, in which case, although I will ask for a good-faith payment of whatever you can afford, we both lose. I accept only your promise in exchange for bearing this risk, and also for advancing your sustenance during the time you devote to your invention.”

Jones begins production forthwith, and after a day, has created a primitive net. Let us assume that this net then allows him to catch seven fish in one day, after which its useful life is exhausted. On the morning of the second day, Jones consumes the second fish loaned to him by Smith, and sets out to go fishing with his new net. He catches seven fish before the net falls apart in the surf. Of his bounty, he repays Smith the two plus one fish, four remaining to himself.

Smith: I could have enjoyed two days of repose immediately, but loaned my excess instead, realizing a gain of one. Now I may enjoy three days of leisure in the future.

Jones: Although it requires only two to produce, its value-add is five.  I paid three therefore realizing a gain of two; now I may enjoy the “weekend” for once.

Both men are better off as a result: Smith needed only work five days this week (as a result of his previous thrift), but works four instead. And Jones who otherwise would’ve worked seven days, works but five.

Question 1: What justification is there, if any, for denouncing the initial grant of loan (two fish to be repaid plus one)?

Question 2: The question of usury hinges upon some sort of exploitation. How precisely has Jones (or Smith) been exploited by the other, under the above scenario?

Question 3: At what price would the loan from Smith to Jones not be considered “usury”?

Concluding Remarks:

If both men enjoy their leisure to its fullest, their reserves will be exhausted and in order to survive each will be compelled by hunger to work the full seven days next week.

On the other hand, if they are wise and cooperative, they will in short time realize that they may obtain the same amount of food with far less effort in the following manner: Jones works twice weekly to produce nets, and Smith uses those nets twice weekly to catch fourteen fish, divided equally between them. Each man may then enjoy five days of leisure where he previously enjoyed none.


What’s Behind the High Price of Gold?

October 8th, 2009

Do not be distracted by headlines touting Gold’s “record high” (closed today at $1054.80).  George Washington (of Washington’s Blog) prudently notes that gold’s nominal high is not quite one-half of it’s inflation adjusted all-time high, and cautions a reversal if the USD strengthens.

Historical price of gold; inflation-adjusted real dollars

So, will the dollar strengthen?  I find this implausible, to say the least (likewise, GW suggests “the dollar will get creamed in the long-run”). I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but this means things might get worse.  Way worse.

Far more important that the elementary observation of a “high” price, is determining why the price is high.  Some analysts now are saying that the nominal increase in the price of gold is due only to a “weak dollar”. Weak currency = lower purchasing power = higher nominal prices. D’uh!

Presently, the dollar is weak because of crazy amounts of inflation and debt being piled up in attempt to sustain the musical-chairs of perpetually rising prices (often misinterpreted as indicators of economic well-being) which phenomenon was itself brought into existence principally by monetary expansion at the hands of the Federal Reserve. Recently, the Fed announced plans to absorb another $1.25 Trillion in (probably toxic) mortgage-backed securities.

Federal Reserve Bank Liabilities

When gold was at its all-time high, the eventual “strengthening” of the USD was brought about by prime rates in the neighborhood of 15%. They got away with it in the early 1980s, but I do not believe that policy makers have the stones to pull out those sort of stops today.

The economy is not recovering.  Unemployment is 10%+ right now. Baby boomers are staring at an extra decade of nine-to-five since their retirement plans got the FUBAR treatment last year. Businesses aren’t hiring, they aren’t developing and they’re not investing; they’re hunkering down and trying to lean it out. Meanwhile, people are being tossed out of their homes because they can’t make the ARM payment.

Now imagine three times worse than that: Soup lines. Hoover blankets. Mortgages at 15% and 20% car notes. One-in-four Americans out of work. Would the people tolerate this? I hope they would not—you couldn’t lead lambs to this sort of slaughter.

So, you can’t but the brakes on it. But you can’t keep it going, either, without ultimately finding yourself neck-deep in hyperinflation, Zimbabwe style. The alternative is to try and avoid a total financial SHTF and economic collapse, by engineering instead a sustained period of economic stagnation, a long and painful restructuring.

Pick your poison.

The Return to Depression Era Economics

August 12th, 2009

First it was the broken-window debacle known formally as CARS, or colloquially as “Cash For Clunkers”: by Government edict, thousands of functioning vehicles were destroyed with sodium silicate. Adding insult to injury, the vehicles (parts of which were ostensibly salvageable) will be scrapped. Thanks to CARS, the replacement driver-side door that you neede for your 1995 whatchamacallit is going to be a little bit harder to find. The market for used cars, and the market for replacement/salvage parts just got a little bit thinner, so prices go up a little bit more.

And then there is agriculture, which has been silently (but openly) engaging in what can only be described as price-fixing. It’s been said elsewhere, but I’ll repeat it: if any other industry openly flaunted it’s price-fixing policies (Big Oil, anyone?) it would quickly draw the ire of politicians, bloggers, and Joe Six-Packs everywhere. Everyone would be in an uproar over “price gouging”.  But I’ve heard nary a whisper about this:

U.S. dairies will remove 86,710 cows from their herds to be sold to slaughterhouses as part of an industry-funded program intended to boost milk prices by curbing output.

The buyout is the third such cull in nine months, the Arlington, Virginia-based National Milk Producers Federation said today in a statement. The most recent buyout completed last month involved 101,000 cows, the most ever for the groups so- called Cooperatives Working Together program, which began in 2003.

— AZCentral

It makes no difference whether these attempts at price-fixing are done at government’s behest, or by cooperatives or cartels trying to bolster their own bottom lines. Attempts to maintain these prices are as sure to fail in the medium- to long-run as water is sure to find its level. In the 1930s, during the height of the Great Depression, farmers were urged to cull their herds, slaughter baby pigs, plow under their fields, etc., all with the goal of keeping prices high. Employers were urged to keep wages high (although many cut working hours to save on expenses) based on the fraudulent notion that production depends on consumption, when in fact it is exactly the opposite.

[I]t is of paramount importance to recognize that such an abundance of goods and services can only arise through production at some historical time, or in other words, that in order to consume, production must first occur. — Say’s Law of Markets: The Case For Doing Nothing

Given the frequency with which people fail to comprehend Say’s Law, you’d think it is a novelty. Unfortunately, it’s not. During a depression/recession, the problem is not that prices have fallen, on the contrary, the problem manifests itself because prices were too high in the first place, and indeed are still too high.

The Great Depression was awful. And it’s frightening to witness the “endarkenment” happening right before our eyes. These same policies have all been tried before, and they’ve never done anyone a damn bit of good. This time won’t be any different.

Via CoyoteBlog by way of Beck.

no third solution

Blogging about liberty, anarchy, economics and politics